有起必有落
EVERYTHING THAT GOES UP, MUST AT SOME POINT COME DOWN!
中国经济的弱点
中国像一个巨大的生产引擎,擅长制造越来越多,却不善于放缓脚步。作为世界工厂,中国的基础设施投入(建设)以一个惊人的速度疯狂增加,每个季度、每年都以7%、8%、9%、10%甚至更高的比例增长,但并不容易也不可能总是保持这样的增速。
中国的经济体系有它的优势,当我们看到美国或者世界都被卷入到因美国而引起的经济危机中,又或是欧洲再一次陷入经济衰退,看起来好像中国的经济体制只有优点。
但是这世界上没有任何一种经济体制是完美的,今天,中国正在为它不擅长的部分上着艰难的一课。
从世界上实行中央计划经济的其他国家的历史来看,中国也不会例外,国内市场需求下降的时候,很难做到减少供应。目前生产供应商面临非常困难的情况,事实上很多瓷砖生产厂家试图掩盖问题的严重程度,他们对外都表示他们做得很好,但实际上根本不是这样。面对这些困难,我想中国人民银行将很快采取降息和加紧出台刺激国内经济的政策,政府部门可能为瓷砖出口提高退税和激励。
当经济进一步减缓,国内外需求加速萎缩的时候,在接下来的几个月里各瓷砖品牌会怎么做呢?
在这样的情况下,各瓷砖品牌会因此缩减规模、减低产量吗?他们会因为严重的滞销带来的困难而打响价格战?开始裁员以降低运营成本?减少终端展厅或者总部展厅的面积?或者关闭一些终端店面?
我想我们将会看到以上的情况一一发生,只是发生的程度和层次不同而已。
我们去看看意大利或者情况更糟糕的西班牙吧。比起三年前,意大利的产能只开动了50%,而西班牙只有30%―40%。西班牙的Castellon(卡斯特利翁,西班牙著名陶瓷产区)就如鬼城一样寂静。
难以置信那么多工厂关闭了,有些已经营了超过30年,一些工厂仍在经营但仅运行着很低的产能。我希望这样坏的情况永远不会发生在中国,虽然我们也看到一些企业倒闭了。实际上在国内外经济都向好的时候,还是会有公司倒闭。这就像自然选择的结果,强者生存,那些拥有更好的组织、更好的管理、最领先的技术、将力量集中在创新和客户服务的企业,最终能够生存下来。当然还有那些财力雄厚的企业。
所有的公司将如何应付这个巨大的挑战都是一个不易的命题。我在美国、墨西哥经历了很多次这样的局面,在这些艰辛的过程中我学到了很多东西,例如应该做什么、怎么做以及何时做。只要你还想从事这个行业,你就得这样做。
对那些做好最充分准备的企业,往往最困难的环境就是最佳的机会,他们能利用困境发挥自身的优势。
在未来2-4年,我们将会见到瓷砖行业有更多的变化甚至变革。
老实说,我相信像早些年如2000年那样的好景是一去不复返的,我期待会有一个大的变化与调整。陶瓷企业便不得不去学会适应形势,他们必须去革新,否则企业只会倒闭。
The Weak Spot in China's Economy
The giant production engine that is China excels at making more and more stuff. But it's not good at slowing down, and when demand building infrastructure grows at breathtaking speed, being the world's factory, growing quarter after quarter and year after year 7%, 8%, 9% and even 10% or more is not easy at all to keep up with and cannot last forever.
These are some of the strengths of China's economic system. And sometimes, as we watch the U.S. and global economy struggle with the fallout from a financial crisis that started in the United States, or the economies of Europe sink again into recession, it can seem as if China's system has only strengths and no weaknesses.
But no economic system is good at everything. And right now, China is delivering a painful lesson in exactly what its economic system is not so good at.
China -- and this should come as no surprise, given the history of other centrally controlled economies in the world-- is really bad at shrinking supply when demand falls. The current supply-side disaster is so bad, in fact, that some of the tile manufacturers try to hide the extent of the problem by saying they are doing well when they are really not doing so good at all. The extent of the problem is one reason I think that the People's Bank of China will move relatively soon to cut interest rates and step up its efforts to stimulate the Chinese economy and possibly the government will increase rebates and incentives to tile exporters.
It will be very interesting what all tile companies will do in the following months when the economy keeps slowing down even more and demand keeps shrinking domestically and internationally very fast.
Will the companies downsize and reduce capacity? Will a price war start when the companies start feeling the pain of super slow sales? Will the companies start laying off people to reduce costs? Will the showrooms reduce their sizes or the showrooms of the distributors? Will some of them close?
I guess we will see all of the above situations happen to some degree or at different levels for sure!
Just look at Italy and even worse Spain. Italy now is at 50% of their capacity compared vs. 3 years ago. Spain is at 30 to 40% of their capacity. Castellon in Spain looks like a ghost town.
I just can’t believe the amount of factories that have closed there and the ones that are still open are running at much lower capacity. Companies have closed that have been in business more than 30 years. I hope it never gets as bad here in China although we may see some companies go down. Also always even when the economy is good domestically or worldwide companies close or go out of business. It is part of a natural process of survival of the species, survival of the stronger, the best, the better organized, the better managed, the companies that are focused on customer service in innovating, the most technically advanced and for sure the companies with the deepest pockets.
It will be very interesting how all companies will react to this huge challenge coming. I personally have experienced this situation multiple times in either Mexico or USA and have learned a lot from them the hard way. I have learned what to do, how to do it, when to do it and just do it if you really want to stay in business.
It will be also a great opportunity for the best prepared companies that always take advantage of the situation when it is the most difficult time.
I guess we will see a lot of changes and a possible transformation of our industry in the years to come (2-4 years).
I honestly believe that things will not be the same anymore like the good old days of the early 2000’s years and I truly expect a big change or adjustment. Companies will have to learn to adapt, they must change or else close their doors.
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