中美贸易战最终会达成协议吗?
The entire world is awaiting the conclusion of the meeting between the Chinese diplomatic representatives and the ones from the USA in their recent meeting in Washington DC. To be honest with all of you, what it is at stake here is simply the global economy and not only the one of these two countries. A devastating blow to our ceramic industry for sure as it highly depends on its exports to the USA which is the main ceramic export destination.
全世界都在等待中国和美国外交代表最近在华盛顿的会议的结果。老实说,这里涉及的不仅是这两个国家,而是全球经济都处在紧要关头。这会对我们陶瓷行业造成灾难性的打击,因为美国是主要的陶瓷出口地,对美国出口有高度依赖。
The dead line of March 1 just around the corner is simply not going to be met and there will be only two options: The first one that I don’t think is going to happen is to impose the 25% rate increase on the Chinese goods. The second one which more than likely will happen, the date will be pushed forward another 60 to 90 days it seems.
即将到来的3月1日期限根本无法实现,只有两个可能:第一个我不认为会发生的是,对中国商品加征25%税。第二个更可能会发生,这个期限可能又将被推后60到90天。
Apparently so far the negotiations have reached some common ground and significant progress has been made, enough to delay the dead line of March 1st. So this week’s trade talks won’t likely result in a final resolution of all trade disputes between the two countries, even if president Trump comes under pressure to accept a deal, any deal.
目前为止谈判貌似已经达成了一些共识和重大进展,足以推迟3月1日的期限。所以这周的贸易洽谈让两国之间所有的贸易争端得以最后结案,即使特朗普总统迫于压力要接受一个议案,或任何议案。
Even with most people in the USA not in agreement with the imposed 10% tariffs to China and potential increase to 25% these have been either we like it or not, effective in getting China to treat USA demands seriously. The requests for greater access to China markets for USA goods, the respect of intellectual property and copyrights of USA goods by China and also China leveling the playing field by lowering their massive subsidies to state-owned companies that often make it impossible for USA goods to compete with the Chines ones. These are the main demands from the USA.
即使美国大多数人不同意对中国征收10%,或是可能增长到25%的关税,但无论大家接受与否,现在的情况都迫使中国严肃对待美国提出的条件。扩大美国商品进入中国市场、中国对美国商品知识产权和版权的尊重以及中国需要降低对国有企业的巨额补贴来平衡竞争环境(这些补贴及支持往往导致美国商品无法与中国商品竞争)。以上就是美国方面的主要要求。
There is absolutely no doubt that China is advancing at super-fast speed in many areas despite the information we hear of the economy significantly slowing down. China has plans of a massive upgrade of its entire industrial economy by the year 2025 focused on some key strategic sectors. Among them some are now dominated by the USA including: aerospace, artificial intelligence, alternative energy vehicles and robots to name just a few.
毫无疑问,尽管我们听说中国经济明显放缓,但事实上中国在许多领域的发展速度依旧非常快。中国计划在2025年前完成整个工业经济的大规模升级,特别是一些关键性的战略领域。目前其中一些领域是由美国在主导的,包括:航空航天、人工智能、新能源汽车和机器人等等。
Leapfrogging the USA economically is the goal, just as it was with the European Union some 20 years ago. And of course, no one should expect China on giving up their grand plans. And the USA and the rest of the world as well are simply asking that while China is pursuing their plans to play by the same rules as the rest of the developed world.
在经济上超越美国是中国的目标,就像20年前超越欧盟的目标一样。当然了,任何人都不要指望中国会放弃他们的宏伟计划。与此同时,美国和世界上其他国家只是在要求中国,当中国正在实施他们的计划时,能按照与发达国家相同的规则行事。
The USA seems to be now on a good position to get what they want. The slowdown in the China economy has entered a slowdown period that has helped the USA to get what they want. China depends on the USA trade. Without it many businesses in China will go belly up and an unprecedented number of employees would be without a job.
美国现在似乎处于有利地位,可以得到他们想要的东西。中国经济进入了一个放缓阶段,这帮助美国得到了他们想要的。中国依赖美国的贸易。没有它,中国的许多企业将会破产,数量空前的员工面临失业。
On another thing the stock markets of the most important countries have been very inconsistent for the past 6 months or so because of their worries about the potential damage to the world economies, particularly the European Union which looks like it is on a verge of a recession after the EU again downgraded its growth outlook along with the BREXIT saga. In short, the global economy is at stake in these China-USA trade negotiations.
另一方面,在过去6个月,最重要国家的股市表现都非常不稳定,因为他们担心贸易战对世界经济造成潜在的损害。尤其是欧盟(EU) 似乎正处于衰退的边缘,在英国退欧事件发生后他们再次下调了增长预期。总之,中美贸易谈判关系到全球经济。
So we all hope that they reach an agreement that will solve the two nations needs and indirectly will benefit the rest of the world but most importantly help our Chinese ceramic industry.
因此,我们都希望他们能达成协议,解决两国的需求,间接造福世界其他地区。当然,最重要的是能帮助到我们中国的陶瓷行业。
Let’s all keep our fingers crossed and hope that this finally come to a good end!
让我们共同祈祷,希望最终能有个好结果。
Humberto Valles
ICC General Manager
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