2015年的最后一篇文章年度感想
2015 was definitely a year most of us want to forget. What started 364 days ago was supposed to be a better year than 2014 and ended up being a very challenging time. Actually maybe it could have been one of the most difficult years of the last decade according to some industry experts.
2015年绝对是我们大多数人想要忘却的一年。364天前我们希望这一年会比2014年更好,结果它充满了挑战,事实上,根据一些行业专家的说法,它可能是过去10年里最困难的年份之一。
Many companies closed completely, many showrooms closed and about 30% of the entire production capacity was shut down completely. Hundreds if not maybe some thousands of kilns simply were turned off.
很多公司完全倒闭,很多展厅关门,大概30%的产能关闭,数以百计甚至千计的窑炉停窑。
Pricing wars started and became pretty much like a nuclear war in China, with everyone trying to survive in any way they could to keep going.
价格战在中国开始,而且演变成像核战争一样惨烈,因为每个人都想通过各种途径生存下来,继续前行。
Technically, it was a full ceramic recession like probably has never been seen in this Country before, something similar to what happened to the stock market or in any country or world economy.
严格说来,这是一场全方位的瓷砖领域衰退,在这个国家以前可能没有见过这种情况,它和股票市场发生的事情类似,也和世界任何国家或者世界的经济情况类似。
I hope that 2016 does not bring any more bad news or that we keep going down to deeper and deeper more difficult and challenging times because it could really get super UGLY.
我希望2016不会带来更多坏的消息,也不希望持续下滑至更糟糕的局面,那样的话真的超级难看。
The good news is that according to industry executives and leaders not only from the ceramic sector but from other areas and news from government officials I believe that in 2016 we are going to reach the bottom early in the first quarter of the year and from there on we will not go down anymore, which is great not to go further down.
好消息是,根据来自行业领导以及来自其它行业和政府官方的声音,我相信将会在2016年的第一季度触底,不会继续下滑。
And when you are at the very bottom, guess what? You can only look up, or from this place you can only go up, slowly if you want but up, period.
当你站在谷底的时候,你猜怎么着?你只能向上看,或者说你处在一个只能向上的位置,可能很慢,但却往上行。
I don’t think anyone will be upset at all if things get better even if it is slow. My experience going through these recessions while I lived in Mexico and USA is that the recovery after a deep fall to the rock bottom is slow and it takes years. It took the USA market after the recession 5 to 6 years to get back to more or less normal definitely not to the high levels of the golden years of 2005-2007 but at least to a pretty decent level.
我相信当情况好转的时候,即使慢一点也没有人会感到难过。我在墨西哥和美国的时候所经历的那些经济衰退告诉我,当重重摔到谷底时,经济恢复将会是一个缓慢的可能需要几年的过程。美国市场花了5到6年的时间才从衰退后恢复到正常的状态,当然并没有达到2005-2007年黄金时期的水平,但是至少达到了一个很不错的水准。
When these things happen in any industry, even when you see many bad stuff like I said at the top of this article one positive thing that happen is that many of the companies, the survivors, the fighters start changing and understand the lesson very clearly that only by innovating, improving and getting creative you can get out of the hole. And this is the positive thing that happens when you face imminent business death. And if you don’t your days more than likely will be numbered because by lowering the prices trying to survive the only thing you do is extend a little more the life of your company and have a more painful business death.
当这样的事情发生在任何行业的时候,甚至当你看到我在上文提到的那些非常糟糕的事情时,正能量的事情发生了,很多公司,幸存者,抗争者开始改变,清楚地从教训里面明白了,只有通过创新,提升以及变得有创造力你才可以从洞里面爬出来。这也是当企业面临迫在眉睫的存亡时能发生的积极事情。如果你不采取行动的话,你的日子可能就要到头了,因为,通过降价求生存只能够稍稍延长你的企业寿命,但会面临更加痛苦的企业灭亡。
I have seen how some of the companies are getting better, more creative and innovating and are even doing better than last year! It is hard to believe but TRUE.
我已经看到了一些企业正在变得更好,更有创造力,甚至比去年做得更出色!让人难以置信但却是真实的。
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