如果墨西哥反倾销持续,将会发生什么?
Is it the end of an era?
将是一个时代的结束吗?
What country has not started a dumping investigation with China? Which country does not have already a compensatory or an additional tax rate with China? And I am obviously talking about our ceramic industry, but it also applies to most other industries where China is strong at manufacturing.
哪一个国家没有针对中国的进行倾销调查?哪一个国家没有针对中国的补偿税率或者额外税率?很明显我在谈我们的陶瓷行业,但这也同样适用于中国其它绝大多数拥有强大制造能力的行业。
Unfortunately for the rest of the world China is a pretty strong manufacturer in almost every industry. We westerns know and say that China is the factory of the world.
很不幸的是,对于世界其它国家来说,中国基本上在每个行业都拥有强大的制造力。我们西方将中国称之为世界工厂。
I am in Mexico now and writing this article to you after a brief interview to our President and some of our financial and sales people related to the current dumping investigation.
就当前的反倾销调查的问题,我对我们主席以及一些财务、销售人员进行了一个简单的采访,目前我置身于墨西哥写这一篇文章。
I asked a couple of simple questions: How they feel about it? How they think this will end, what resolution they will reach? And finally how will it affect our company and country?
我问了一些简单的问题:他们是怎么看这事?他们觉得这件事情会怎样结束,最后会达成怎样的解决方案?然后最后将会对我们公司和国家产生什么样的影响?
To my surprise they were very concerned. I thought they wouldn`t be because I felt they were pretty confident about the situation and the potential resolution, but they were not, and they seem worried because whatever resolution is reached it is completely out of their hands even if we as a company defend in the best way our company and case.
出乎我意料的是,他们都非常担心。我之前认为他们不会,因为我觉得他们看起来对应对这个局面和潜在的解决都挺有信心,而实际情况是他们看起来非常担忧,因为不管达成什么样的决议,都已经不由他们掌控了,虽然作为一家企业,他们已经竭尽所能在这一案件里维护自身。
Our COO Chief Operating Officer mentioned that very likely there will be a potential tax increase or adjustment that in the best case will just lower the imports 30-40% of soluble salts and double loaded polished goods from China, but in the worst case it will simply just shut it down completely.
我们的首席运营官提到,税率升高或者调整将极有可能发生,最乐观的情况是从中国进口的渗花砖和微粉砖数量将会下降30-40%,而最坏的情况则是,完全停止从中国进口这类产品。
Then the question is, if this happens then what?: If Mexico stops importing these products (and let`s use use as an example 600,000 m2 per month or 7,000,000 m2 per year) from China. Mexico, the entire country will be out of 60x60 or 80x80 polished goods soon. Will Mexico start making them? Will Mexico start importing these goods from another country? Would these products and their sales be replaced by products manufactured in Mexico?
那么问题是,如果真发生了会怎么样?如果墨西哥停止从中国进口这些产品(比如说每个月60万方或者每年700万方)。墨西哥整个国家将会很快面临60x60或者80x80这种规格的抛光砖短缺的局面。墨西哥会开始生产它们吗?墨西哥开始从其它国家进口这些产品?这些产品以及它们的市场份额会由墨西哥生产的其它产品所替代吗?
The answer will be yes to the three questions above but with very different probabilities like mentioned next:
对上面三个问题的答案是肯定的,但是可能性将会有所不同,如下:
Mexico will start making those items 3%
墨西哥将会开始生产这些产品(3%可能性)
Mexico will import those items from another country 7%
墨西哥将会从其它国家进口这些产品(7%可能性)
Mexico will replace those items with other product styles made in Mexico 90%
墨西哥将会用本土生产的其它产品来代替这种产品类型(90%可能性)
The most educated guess based on what I heard from them and from people of Brazil, Argentina, Thailand, Italy, Spain, etc., all of them countries
that have dumping cases with China is that it will proceed increasing the import rate from 15% to 50% up to 100% depending on you purchasing price. Example: if you are an importer from Mexico and buy in China soluble salts style ceramic tile 60x60 polished for 3.95 usd/m2, this tile will pay more than likely 100% duty instead of the old 15% rate. On the other side if you are the same importer and buys double loaded tile for 9 usd/m2 in China this tile will pay a rate of 50% instead of the old rate of 15%. This still if and only if you are an approved importer, because if you are not you may pay much more than that.
根据我从他们那里听到的,以及从来自巴西,阿根廷,泰国,意大利,西班牙等曾经和中国有过倾销纠纷的国家的行业人士那里了解到的情况,很有可能发生的情况是,进口税率将会根据你的采购价格从15%提升到50%乃至100%不等。例子:假如你是一个从中国进口产品的墨西哥进口商,你从中国购买的60x60规格的抛光类渗花砖的采购价为3.95美金/平方米, 这批货物很有可能你要支付100%的进口关税,而不是之前的15%的进口税。 另一方面,假设你是同样一家墨西哥进口商,你从中国购买的微粉砖是9美金/平方米,你需要支付的进口税率可能为50%,而不是之前的15%。这还是基于你是一个有进口准许的进口商的基础上,如果不是的话,你可能还要支付更多。
They will monitor the rates by product style, size, price and weight!The only thing that seems certain is that the duty rate will go up, the imports of ceramic goods from China to Mexico will significantly will go down and these products will be replaced by domestic Mexico products.
他们会通过产品种类,规格,价格和重量来监控税率!唯一看起来确定的事情就是,关税会上升,墨西哥从中国进口的瓷砖将会大幅下降,这些产品将会被墨西哥本土生产的产品所替代。
So how wins? Who loses? I think everybody lose. There is no winner here!
那么谁赢了?谁输了?我认为所有人都输了。这里没有赢家!
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