Happy New Western Year! 新年快乐
The Best Wishes to all of you for 2015!
送给你们2015最好的祝福!
2014 was a very difficult year, more challenging than most people predicted. It was supposed to be a year a little better than 2013 (Which was already bad) and a year of a slow recovery but ended up being worse.
Many companies struggled, many others had to slow down, shut down kilns, cut people, etc.
2014是非常困难的一年,比大部分人预测的还要更难。本来希望它比2013年要好那么一点点(2013年已经够糟了)能成为缓慢复苏的一年,结果情况更糟糕。很多公司在挣扎,一些公司需要关闭,停窑,裁员等等。
I think there are enough evidence and plenty of articles and information that say that more than 20-25% and even up to 30% of the kilns in China are in sleeping mode.
有足够的证据、文章与信息告诉我们,超过25%甚至达到30%的中国窑炉处于休眠状态。
Maybe the world recession was finally felt in our Ceramic Industry in China and this past 2014 year could have been (And I hope) the most difficult one.
也许世界性的衰退终于降临到中国的陶瓷行业了,过去的2014年也许是最困难的一年(我希望如此)。
I really hope that 2015 is a little better than 2014, and there is some good feedback that it will be. The consistent good news of the improvement of the USA economy and the speedy recovery of their market give all of us a clear view of the light at the end of the tunnel.
我真的希望2015年会比2014年好一点,因为有一些利好消息——美国经济的持续增长以及市场的快速复苏,让我们清楚地看到隧道尽头的光亮。
Our company business in USA for the past 6 years has had extremely challenging times but for the past 3 years and specially this 2014 we have been improving at a slightly over the average market growth of 4-5% (Actually our growth has been 8% average per year for the past 3 years).
在过去有六年,我们公司在美国的业务经历了非常困难的阶段,但是在接着三年里,尤其是2014年,我们实现了提升,增长略高于4-5%的市场平均增长(实际上我们在过去三年里面已经达到了年平均8%的增长。)
The effect in China was felt much later and had a two or three year delay factor and it was noticeable right away by the timing the factories started closing and opening during CNY.
对中国的影响比较迟,有大概两到三年的滞后,但是通过春节期间的工厂停窑和开窑时间可以马上感受到这点。
Example: At the end of last CNY many if not most factories shut down earlier their production lines and started quite late. CNY was in Jan 30, 2014 and many factories stopped Jan 1 and started Mar 1 (Almost 60 days). This year CNY is Feb 19, and I have been informed and have seen that many factories already shut down this week and they will not start again until Mar 1 up to Mar 5 or so. So, it is as bad, or even worse than last year. On the other hand I have also noticed that some other companies will stop later and start sooner.
例如,去年中国新年前,大部分的工厂较早停窑,开窑也比较晚。去年春节是2014年1月30日,很多工厂1月1日就停窑了,直到3月1日才开窑(将近60天),今年春节是2月19日,但是我听到和看到很多工厂在这个礼拜就停窑了,直到3月1日到5号左右才会开始,不仅和去年一样,甚至更加糟糕。 同时,我也注意到有一些公司停窑的时间会晚一点,开始得也相应较早。
During these difficult times I saw something very clearly and made me think…………..it was interesting to see that the companies that are busier, or at least struggling less are the ones that pay more attention to innovation, the ones that have differentiated products and not as similar than most other companies. At the same time and on the other hand the pricing war on commodity products has become so fierce that it is just unbelievable how you can survive or compete with against these prices like:Woods 90 cm long being sold at 7 dollars per m2, full polished products 80x80 for 8 dollars per m2 or 60x60 digital porcelain non polished for 5 Dollars per m2.
在这样困难的时间里,我清楚地看到了一些事情,并且思考……非常有意思的是,那些更忙碌,或者说至少没有那么挣扎的公司正是那些更注重创新,差异化的公司。同时,同质化产品的价格战已经如此激烈,很难想象面临这样的价格你要怎样去生存和竞争,像:90cm规格的木纹卖到每平方7美金,80cm规格的全抛类产品卖到每平方8美金,60x60cm规格的喷墨亚面瓷质砖每平方5美金。
Who can make good business at these prices? I know companies make this to survive, to keep the kilns running, to cover the fixed costs, they do it to stay alive, but………. for how long can they do it? How does this affect everyone else and force the whole industry to drop the whole pricing structure?
这样的价格下谁能把生意做好?我知道有些公司让窑炉转起来,去摊平固定费用,这样做的目的是让自己活下去,但是……这样他们能撑多久呢?又将如何影响其企业,并且逼迫整个行业将价格降下来呢?
I really hope that this does not become like a snowball and gets bigger and bigger. I hope it comes to an end. It is sad how the situation affect everyone and we simply do not need bad news any more.
我真的希望它不要像滚雪球一样越滚越大,能迎来它一个终点。看到这样的情况影响所有人真是悲哀,我们再也不想听到这样的坏消息。
Anyway, I want to wish all of you the best for this new western year and may this year bring you all of you new products, new customers, new orders, more sales, more business and more profit.
不管怎么说,我要在这个西方的新年之际,给所有人最好的祝福,希望这一年会为你们带来新的产品,新的客户,新的订单,更多的销售,更多的业务,更多的利润。
Today January 1, 2015 is like the first blank page of a 365 page book; I hope you are ready to write a good one!
今天,2015年1月1日,就像一本365页的书的崭新第一页;我希望你们准备好阅读这一本好书了。
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