中国是否能保持它无人超越的制造地位?
In the past three decades China has revolutionized global manufacturing. China to the western people is known as the “World Factory”.
在过去的30年,中国给全球制造带来了巨大变革。对于西方人来讲,中国是闻名的“世界工厂”。
In the past 30 years or so, more than 500 million people (More than the entire population of USA, Mexico and Canada (The Whole North America territory) has moved from the farm fields to the big cities, creating an incredible mass of new factory workers. As you very well know the Chinese economy has as well changed drastically in this same period of time surpassing the USA economy in less than the time that was previously predicted (Year 2020).
在过去的30年左右,超过5亿人(超过了整个美国人口,墨西哥和加拿大(整个北美地区)已经从农田迁移到大城市,创造一个令人难以置信的工人数量。正如你所知道的,中国经济在这段时间内发生了翻天覆地的变化,同样中国的经济也正在超越美国,这比之前预测2020年这个时间点还要早
However there is some concerns as well because wages are rising, and the cost of raw materials and energy making possibly China less competitive against other Asian Countries that are in the minds of the rest of the world like: Vietnam, Bangladesh that have cheaper costs of labor.
然而同样有一些这样的担忧,因为工资上涨,原材料成本和能源等原因,可能会导致中国竞争力相对其他亚洲国家下降, 世界上普遍认为其竞争来自于像越南、孟加拉国等具有更廉价的劳动力的国家。
Does this mean the beginning of an end of China’s dominance of world manufacturing?
Maybe not just yet!
这是否意味着中国的全球制造开始走向结束?
也许这还没到时候!
China’s further productivity growth along with continued supply of new urban city workers will keep China competitive despite several new trends in supply chains.
尽管在供应链上面有一些新趋势,但是中国的生产率的进一步提高,将和持续不断的从农村涌入城市的新劳动力供给一起保持中国的竞争力,
I read an article that said that China will reach an unprecedented number of 800 million workers. A huge number that is great for the low-cost manufacturers. (An enormous supply of labor workers that have kept somehow the wages low).
我读的一篇文章说,中国将达到空前的8亿名工人。庞大的工人数量将会更有利低成本制造。庞大的工人数量让工资一直保持较低的水平。
This combined with high levels of public investment in infrastructure and a very stable political environment and a good education system pushed China from the world’s 7th economy in 1980 to the world biggest in 2014 valued in goods produced in US Dollar terms.
对于基础设施的高水平投入,非常稳定的政治环境以及良好的教育系统,这几个因素一起将中国由1980年的世界第七大经济体推到2014年世界最大经济体地位。
Among Asian markets Bangladesh and Vietnam are cited as an alternative to China for low cost export manufacturing (But one is not a Tile manufacturing Country).
在亚洲市场,孟加拉和越南被视为可称为替代中国的低成本出口制造国(但其中一个不是瓷砖生产国)
But none of these two countries is forecasted to close the gap of competitiveness with China.
Why? Because even if the wages in China are rising at a little faster rate than these two countries neither Vietnam or Bangladesh are growing in labor productivity as fast as China.
As well, and as important, the very important fact of the industry infrastructure and infrastructure in general of Vietnam that still is way behind of the Chinese and the risk of operating in these countries.
但是这两个国家没有任何一个可以预见缩小和中国的竞争力的差距。为什么?尽管中国的工资增长比这两个国家快一点,但是不管是越南还是孟加拉,它的劳动生产率增长速度都无法跟上中国。此外,一个很重要的事实是,越南的工业基础设施和其它的基础设施都远远落后于中国,以及在这些国家经营存在的风险。
So this is the reason why and how China will maintain at least from the next few years its manufacturing supremacy.
因此,这正是中国在接下来的几年,将会继续保持它无人能超越的制造大国地位的原因。
I know that China will find somehow a way to keep as well its supremacy in ceramic tile manufacturing to stay competitive and continue exporting to the world its products.
我知道,中国也会找到使其瓷砖制造大国地位保持竞争力的方法,并继续向世界出口它的产品。
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